{"id":2404,"date":"2022-02-16T01:18:12","date_gmt":"2022-02-16T06:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/2022\/02\/16\/dont-fear-the-backlash-weve-only-seen-the-shift-to-streaming-tvs-first-wave\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T01:18:12","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T06:18:12","slug":"dont-fear-the-backlash-weve-only-seen-the-shift-to-streaming-tvs-first-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/news\/dont-fear-the-backlash-weve-only-seen-the-shift-to-streaming-tvs-first-wave\/2404\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Fear The Backlash: We\u2019ve Only Seen The Shift to Streaming TV\u2019s First Wave"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>By Ashwin Navin, Co-founder and CEO of Samba TV<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Streaming has had a bit of a backlash over the past few days in the public markets. Netflix\u2019s disappointing subscriber news sent investors fleeing the stock which then caused a ripple effect throughout the broader connected TV marketplace pulling down just about anyone that touched the streaming world. While a disappointing quarter can certainly dampen moods, the fact remains that the macro picture regarding the future of the broader connected television marketplace remains brighter than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As Lightshed Partners\u2019 Rich Greenfield put in on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=X4icbRVVvuI\" aria-label=\"bloomberg recently, see on youtube>Bloomberg recently, <\/a>\u201cWe\u2019ve shifted from linear TV to streaming TV and there is no going back.\u201d<\/p><p><\/p>\n\n<p>The challenge for those seeking to read the streaming tea leaves is that many are simply viewing the market through the wrong lens.<\/p><p><\/p>\n\n<p>While the headlines of the past two years have focused almost exclusively on the growth of paid subscription services like Disney+, HBOMax, Apple TV+, Paramount+ and Peacock, the reality is these services and the subscription market overall, offer just one view into the very diverse television landscape that is rapidly evolving before us<\/p><p><\/p>\n\n<p>What we are witnessing today \u2014 right now in fact \u2014\u00a0 is simply that the first wave of the shift to streaming, which has been fueled primarily by the ad free subscription companies \u2014 has begun to reach a natural and expected ceiling in some markets. That doesn&#8217;t mean that the secular shift toward digitally delivered TV is slowing down. Not for a second.\u00a0 Nor does it mean that there is not an enormous migration of revenue already underway that will only accelerate into the connected television space.<\/p><p><\/p>\n\n<p>The reality is that just as the first wave of subscription fueled streaming services have matured and come ashore, the second wave is just beginning to crest and with it will come the largest realignment of marketing spend in a generation.\u00a0 By 2025, the US television market alone will be a 100 billion dollar industry with the lion\u2019s share of growth coming from streaming.<\/p><p><\/p>\n\n<p>According <a href=\" https:>to eMarketer<\/a>, connected TV advertising in the US surged 60% in 2021.\u00a0 Protocol called 2021<a href=\"https:\/\/www.protocol.com\/newsletters\/next-up\/2021-cord-cutting-trends\"> a \u2018post cable\u2019 year<\/a> in a year where The Harris Poll found that 90% of US consumers now stream. Just as streaming has surged, linear cable has continued its precipitous decline.\u00a0 More than one and a half million traditional pay television subscribers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lightreading.com\/video-media\/us-pay-tv-drops-another-637000-subs-in-q3-2021\/d\/d-id\/774357\" aria-label=\"cut the cord in Q3 of 2021 read on light reading\">cut the cord in Q3 of 2021<\/a> alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As subscription services mature and linear declines, streaming\u2019s second act has begun to take center stage.\u00a0 Ad supported streaming has been surging since the pandemic began two years ago \u2014 and we see signs that it\u2019s growth trajectory will only continue to surge along with the availability and popularity of free ad supported services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As more media companies invest in advertising supported streaming platforms with lighter commercial loads, consumers are leaning into the value of exchanging their time with brands for great content.\u00a0 Fox is already predicting that Tubi\u2014 the free ad supported platform it acquired just a few years ago \u2014 will be a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiercevideo.com\/video\/tubi-will-tally-up-1b-ad-sales-for-fox-by-2023-analyst#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20research%20note,and%20%241%20billion%20in%202023.\" aria-label=\"billion dollar business by 2023, read on fierce video\">billion dollar business by 2023<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CBS Viacom\u2019s Pluto is already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiercevideo.com\/video\/pluto-tv-s-u-s-ad-revenue-will-top-1b-by-2022-emarketer#:~:text=The%20research%20company%20estimates%20Pluto,reaching%20%241.14%20billion%20in%202022.\" aria-label=\"there, read on fierce video\">there<\/a>. Streaming inventory was a huge driver in last year\u2019s bounceback TV upfront as CNBC reported \u201cAd-supported streaming steals the show at Tv upfronts\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With these macro changes, come real challenges.\u00a0 The shifting landscape of television and consumer engagement (we saw this play out again at the end of last year, as both<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/advertising-market-keeps-growing-much-faster-than-expected-forecasters-say-11638784800\" aria-label=\"group M and dentsu had to once again tear up their forecasts for digital ad spending, read on wall street journal\"> GroupM and Dentsu had to once again tear up their forecasts for digital ad spending<\/a> \u2014 and revise them upward, thanks in part to CTV) highlights the risk of misreading the signals in today\u2019s connected television landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One missed guidance number doesn\u2019t negate the fact that according to GroupM, $170 billion was spent in 2021 on television advertising globally \u2014 the vast majority of it still locked up in the declining linear TV world.\u00a0 The bulk of these dollars are poised to move to connected TV regardless of how the streaming wars net out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With ad supporters streaming platforms poised to gain, a new ecosystem is emerging to help marketers navigate the most fragmented media landscape we have ever witnessed.\u00a0 These new players in the measurement, targeting, data and analytics markets are poised to benefit significantly from the enormous influx of revenue into the marketplace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US is ground zero for this change as marketers and content owners alike struggle to accurately measure and reach audiences in a streaming first world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider this one fact: in a study that will be published later this month, Samba TV found that 97% of linear TV dollars in Q4 of 2021 were spent reaching just one half of the television audience.\u00a0 This level of waste and duplication and missed opportunity from doing things the old way is giving rise to incredible innovations and to disruptive companies that are ushering in the next wave of consumer engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The future of television is before us.\u00a0 It will be connected, measured, targeted and engaged in entirely different ways than we have seen in the past half century.\u00a0 There has never been a better time to have a direct relationship with the consumer, to connect content with advertisers and to help shape the direction of the streaming decade.\u00a0 The streaming sky is not falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As Lightshed\u2019s Greenfield commented this past week, \u201cStreaming is in the Top of the 2nd globally. Not the Bottom of the 8th.\u201d There is a lot more of this game to play and there will be many more winners in the streaming decade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The future of television is before us.\u00a0 It will be connected, measured, targeted and engaged in entirely different ways than we have seen in the past half century.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":2405,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5,10],"topics":[2],"class_list":["post-2404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-data","tag-streaming-ctv","topics-editorial"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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