{"id":3388,"date":"2022-08-23T01:30:12","date_gmt":"2022-08-23T05:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/2022\/08\/23\/the-power-of-tracking-real-time-sentiment-shifts-among-voters-in-times-of-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2022-08-23T01:30:12","modified_gmt":"2022-08-23T05:30:12","slug":"the-power-of-tracking-real-time-sentiment-shifts-among-voters-in-times-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/news\/the-power-of-tracking-real-time-sentiment-shifts-among-voters-in-times-of-uncertainty\/3388\/","title":{"rendered":"The Power of Tracking Real-Time Sentiment Shifts Among Voters in Times of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Daniel Scantlebury, PhD, Director, Data Science at Resonate<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

If the past six years of American politics have revealed anything, it\u2019s that the old ways in which political campaigns understood and connected with persuadable voters no longer apply. Going into 2022\u2019s red-hot election cycle, campaigns need access to relevant, real-time voter intelligence to build and execute campaigns that win the hearts and minds of the fast-evolving U.S. constituent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s news cycles, which move faster every year, dictate how people form opinions, and traditional polling mechanisms long ago lost the ability to keep up. Today, successful campaigns need a more fluid understanding of the topics that are influencing voters\u2014and in what way. Let\u2019s take a deeper dive into how we\u2019ve seen real-time news cycles influence the political landscape in ways campaigns didn\u2019t anticipate\u2014and what campaign leaders can do to ensure they\u2019re not blind-sided going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

The 2016 Surprise We Should Have Seen Coming<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Trump\u2019s surprise victory over Clinton in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election has now gone down in history among the all-time \u201chow did we not see that coming?\u201d moments in political forecasting and campaigning. But indeed, campaign leaders (and the world) just weren\u2019t looking in the right place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

Going into the 2016 election, campaigns underestimated the sentiments of large swaths of so-called \u201cblue-collar voters,\u201d and they failed to pay attention to the news stories that were truly influencing those voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

The below graph, based on data from the AI-driven Resonate Ignite intelligence platform, provides a snapshot of how blue-collar voters in key states were engaging with two important news stories leading up to the 2016 election: the Hilary Clinton email server scandal and Trump\u2019s Access Hollywood tape. Looking at this data, we observe that the email server story was one that blue-collar voters were tracking and engaging with heavily for more than three months leading up to the election, whereas the Access Hollywood interview represented a temporary blip in consciousness. In failing to give appropriate weight and response to the former issue, while assuming the latter represented a death blow to the Trump campaign, the Clinton campaign made a critical miscalculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

\"graph,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(Source: Resonate Ignite platform)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

Now, six years later, there\u2019s no less at stake in terms of election outcomes. In 2022, each turn of the news cycle seems to bring with it campaign-shifting evolution in voter sentiment. From the war in Ukraine to COVID to social injustice protests, the landscape is changing rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

So how can campaign leaders know which news cycles are most consequential for their causes? The process requires a sophisticated technology infrastructure and thoughtful AI and ML applications. Leveraging such tools, the first step is to gain a more-nuanced view of voter segments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

Beyond the Two Parties: A More Granular Approach <\/strong><\/h2>\n

American voters are a diverse electorate\u2014ever so much more complex than a two-party system would suggest. For political marketers, the first step in better understanding voters\u2019 personal drivers, values and issues is to get more granular with segmentation. Resonate recently released a comprehensive analysis<\/a> of the sentiment, intent, motivations and values of the American voters who will determine the results of the 2022 elections. This research uncovered 10 unique voter segments that candidates must understand as they plan their primary campaigns. They are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n