{"id":9929,"date":"2025-12-11T01:53:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T06:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/2025\/12\/11\/why-q1-is-the-perfect-time-to-experiment-and-fail\/"},"modified":"2025-12-11T13:32:38","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T18:32:38","slug":"why-q1-is-the-perfect-time-to-experiment-and-fail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/news\/why-q1-is-the-perfect-time-to-experiment-and-fail\/9929\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Q1 Is the Perfect Time to Experiment (and Fail)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>By Michael Kaminsky, Co-Founder of <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/getrecast.com\/\"><em>Recast<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When marketing campaigns go wrong, the damage isn\u2019t just monetary. Cringeworthy misfires can tank brand equity, dominate headlines, and become punchlines for years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many of us remember Pepsi\u2019s protest-themed ad with Kendall Jenner, which was pulled within 24 hours and reportedly cost the company upwards of <a href=\"https:\/\/people.com\/food\/kendall-jenner-pepsi-commercial-company-cost\/\">$5 million<\/a> in production costs. There\u2019s also Peloton\u2019s 2019 holiday commercial, which caused <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/media\/2019\/dec\/04\/peloton-backlash-sexist-dystopian-exercise-bike-christmas-advert\">so much backlash<\/a> that the company\u2019s market cap dropped by over a billion dollars in a matter of days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spectacular campaign failures can make marketers risk averse. But here&#8217;s what we often miss: most marketing failures don&#8217;t go viral \u2013 they\u2019re small and disappear quietly. A campaign underperforms, a new channel disappoints, an A\/B test falls flat. Teams bury these results and move on, particularly early in the year after a busy Q4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s the real tragedy. Because while viral failures cost millions, forgotten failures arguably cost organizations more by robbing them of the insights that drive breakthrough growth. This makes Q1 (when organizational pressure is often lower and timelines are longer) the best time to build a marketing experimentation program that will help you win year-round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Planning to Fail: A New Balance Case Study<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Few global marketing powerhouses talk openly about failure the way New Balance does. In fact, Chris Davis, the company\u2019s Brand President and CMO, has built his entire operating philosophy around it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a <a href=\"https:\/\/brand-innovators.com\/cmo-of-the-week-new-balances-chris-davis\/\">2022 interview<\/a>, Davis described New Balance\u2019s budgeting framework as \u201c50-30-20\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n \t<li>50% goes to proven, evergreen campaigns<\/li>\r\n \t<li>30% funds calculated marketing bets<\/li>\r\n \t<li>20% is explicitly reserved for high-risk, high-upside efforts<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This model incentivizes risk-taking and creates structural room for learning. Campaigns that begin in the experimental 20% bucket often evolve into calculated bets in next year&#8217;s 30% category, then graduate to the 50% tier of proven activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results speak for themselves. New Balance posted $7.8 billion in revenue <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sneakerfreaker.com\/news\/new-balance-experience-another-huge-growth-year-2024-revenue-results\/\">in 2024<\/a> \u2013 20% growth and their fourth consecutive year at that pace. By embracing experiments that might fail, they&#8217;ve transformed from challenger brand to one of the industry&#8217;s fastest-growing players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Misinterpreting Experiments Gone-Wrong<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In my experience speaking with marketing teams across industries as diverse as fintech, B2B, and pharma, I\u2019ve unfortunately seen different patterns play out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New experiments are launched, and if they don\u2019t exceed performance targets, their results go into a slide deck that never gets opened again. Consumer priorities shift, leadership gets impatient, and the team refocuses on the next \u201cbig swing\u201d they want to take. Instead of using the original test failure to inform the next strategy and subsequent experiments, it gets erased entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, there are reasons for this. In addition to the financial and reputational costs of failure, teams are under pressure to produce quick wins. They may also lack a system for capturing and revisiting experiments so that they can inform future tests that ultimately go right. Most fundamentally, many organizations reward only success, creating cultures where admitting failure, even productive failure, becomes career-limiting rather than career-enhancing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whatever the cause, ignoring failed experiments often leads organizations to stop running them altogether. Worse, they may even repeat the same mistakes later on without realizing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Learning from Mistakes (By Writing Them Down)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To achieve results like New Balance, a simple but powerful organizational habit is critical: log every experiment you run, what you expected to happen, and what actually occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I call this an \u201cexperiment ledger.\u201d No matter where it\u2019s housed, every good entry should include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n \t<li>The hypothesis behind the test<\/li>\r\n \t<li>The results, including point estimates <em>and<\/em> confidence intervals<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Any challenges or surprises during execution<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Explanations for why an experiment might have succeeded or failed<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Follow-on hypotheses for future testing<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s what a sample entry might look like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Test:<\/em> New TikTok prospecting campaign targeting women 35+<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Hypothesis: <\/em>Isolating delivery to a more targeted, affluent audience can drive customer acquisition under a $60 CPA vs. $75 CPA for other evergreen campaigns<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Result:<\/em> Estimate $90 CPA for the test audience with confidence interval of $78 &#8211; $102<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Potential Learning:<\/em> TikTok\u2019s algorithmic targeting of broader audiences outperforms more filtered audiences created by channel managers<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Next step:<\/em> Continue using evergreen TikTok targeting and focus subsequent experiments on improving creative engagement and landing page conversion<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over time, this kind of ledger becomes a strategic asset. You\u2019ll start to notice patterns across campaigns and channels, spot signals that a failed effort on one platform could succeed elsewhere, and ultimately stop making the same expensive mistakes twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the power of an experiment ledger extends beyond data. It creates a cultural shift. When teams see that failed tests are documented and discussed rather than buried, it changes how they approach risk: running a bold test that doesn\u2019t work becomes a contribution to shared knowledge rather than a career misstep. This visible commitment to learning promotes the kind of systematic experimentation that\u2019s driving long-term growth for leaders like New Balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Failure as a Year-Round Growth Engine<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marketing experiments rarely produce clear wins, but that doesn\u2019t preclude them from being valuable. A failed test eliminates a hypothesis, narrows your focus, and often sparks adjacent ideas worth exploring. The faster teams move through this cycle, the faster they learn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Q1 is a great time to build this kind of experimentation program. For most businesses, the stakes are lower than they&#8217;ll be in Q3 or Q4 \u2013 timelines are longer, budgets haven&#8217;t been fully committed, and there&#8217;s organizational breathing room to try things that might not work. Use this window to start documenting tests, encourage reflection on what didn&#8217;t work, and train your organization to see failed experiments as contributions to shared knowledge rather than career setbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The brands that learn fastest from their failures will be the ones leading the pack by year-end. Start building that capability now, while you have the space to get it right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The brands that learn fastest from their failures will be the ones leading the pack by year-end. Start building that capability now, while you have the space to get it right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":9930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5],"topics":[2],"class_list":["post-9929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-data","topics-editorial"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Q1 Is the Perfect Time to Experiment (and Fail) | AW360<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advertisingweek.com\/aw360\/news\/why-q1-is-the-perfect-time-to-experiment-and-fail\/9929\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Q1 Is the Perfect Time to Experiment (and Fail)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The brands that learn fastest from their failures will be the ones leading the pack by year-end. 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