Follow the wallet, not the register

By Vlad Strelsov, Head of Revenue at Attain

In the outcomes era, the ability to measure success ultimately comes down to the wallet. Sales are the common language across marketing, finance, and the boardroom.

In retail media, however, no one sees the whole wallet. Even the largest commerce companies such as Walmart and Amazon can observe only their own transactions. The rest is hidden inside other tills, carts, and checkout screens.

This incomplete view is the root of fragmentation in the RMN ecosystem, and it could prevent the category and the outcomes era from realizing its full potential. There are several possible ways to address it.

The Problem With Fragmentation

Fragmentation reveals itself in multiple ways. Shopper insights are rarely portable between networks, limiting the reach of data-driven strategies. Inventory is locked in silos, making it difficult to run campaigns across multiple retailers. Measurement is inconsistent, with each network grading its own homework and often claiming incremental sales that might have occurred without the advertising at all. Without a universal identity graph connecting purchases across retailers, advertisers are left to reconcile conflicting attribution reports. A single sale might be credited to more than one network, and the brand is still left without a clear answer as to what actually drove it.

The problem is sticky and structural because RMNs are locked in competition to capture as much of the wallet as they can for themselves. Shopper data and attribution methods are treated as strategic assets, and networks are incentivized to guard their share against rivals. This proprietary mindset limits cooperation and keeps the industry from assembling a full view of consumer spending.

Four Possible Paths

While the incentives that keep networks guarding their own data are strong, there are still a few potential routes the industry could take to overcome these barriers and move toward a more complete view of the wallet.

Collaboration: One path is for networks to agree to make their data interoperable through a neutral, independent platform. In theory, this would allow marketers to plan and measure campaigns across multiple retailers seamlessly. In practice, every clean room on the market today is tied to the commercial interests of its owner, which tends to favor the largest advertisers with the most negotiating leverage.

Traditional Co-ops: Another approach is the cooperative model that once fueled the early days of direct marketing, when retailers contributed data to shared databases governed by common rules. While effective in the past, today’s competitive pressures and proprietary incentives make this model unlikely to scale.

Consolidation: Mergers and acquisitions could (and probably will) reduce the number of RMNs and, on the surface, simplify the landscape. Yet even with fewer players, each network would still have only partial wallet visibility unless they changed their approach to data sharing. Consolidation may shrink the field, but it does not solve the core problem.

Consumer-Level Intelligence: The most pragmatic solution is to view the market from the shopper’s perspective. Permissioned, consumer-sourced data provides a neutral view that cuts across retailer boundaries by going directly to the wallet. This is a clean path to reconciling competing claims, measuring true incrementality, and capturing the complete context of a sale. If the consumer’s wallet is the universal source of truth and the only currency that works everywhere, this is the fastest and most pragmatic way to organize around it.

Follow the Money, Not The Destination

Retail media is growing quickly, and scrutiny is growing with it. Marketers need to understand exactly how much of their spend is driving incremental sales versus subsidizing purchases that would have happened anyway. Until the industry can work from a more complete view of the wallet, decisions will be made with partial and sometimes conflicting information.

Consumer-level intelligence does not require every retailer to join the same platform. It only requires measurement rooted in observed behavior that crosses retailer boundaries. In the context of the outcomes era, this is what will unlock the full promise of retail media, giving brands and agencies the ability to connect upper- and lower-funnel investments to the same source of truth, and proving value in a way that stands up across the organization. It will increase the overall share of the marketing budget spent on retail media, a rise in the tide that lifts all boats.

The outcomes era is about more than retail media inventory or a prioritization of bottom-of-the-funnel performance. It is about building a universal framework where every channel, every tactic, and every campaign can be tied to the same currency: sales. Retail media has a central role to play in that, but it will only realize its full potential if it can resolve fragmentation and build bridges that connect separate parts of the wallet.

Among all the paths forward, consumer-level intelligence is the one most likely to make that possible.